1. The Aircraft Repair and Supply Center was informally tasked with preparing a "LTS101 Availability Study". My staff has built a computer model for LTS101 Program Cost, Parts Demand, Engine Overhaul Demand and Production Labor Requirements. Enclosure (2) is a six part analysis utilizing the model to predict our situation: today, in late FY1990, and in late FY1993.

2. The model was built in Solution Designer, a CTOS clone of LOTUS123. I can transfer the model to you, in either Solution Designer or LOTUS 123 format, if you desire to change our assumptions. I hve highlighted the independent variables in Part I, all dependent variables are calculated with only the results being displayed. Input values are based on analysis of actual data from the ARSC mainframe database.

LTS availability is a function of: (A.) Demand for Engines (and) (B.) Supply of Engines.

Demand is a function of: (A.) Accrued Flight Hours (and) (B.) Reliability.

Supply is a function of: (A.) Funding, (B.) Capital Plant, (C.) Labor, (D.) Spare Part Availability, (and) (E.) Timely Contract Awards.

Current LTS101 availability is being constrained by labor and funding. All other supply side variables are adequate.

4. I hve made realistic assumptions regarding reliability improvements to be gained from the ongoing Textron-Lycoming development efforts. While the forecasts are fairly sensitive to the assumptions, funding becomes the pacing variable. Part VI forecasts funding requirements through FY1993.

5. Part V assumes that 600 hour hot section inspection has returned to field level. Actual program costs are thus slightly understated. Note that the "Power By The Hour" costs are forecast for FY1993 at $64.82 per engine hour (start of page 2) in current year dollars. If the Textron-Lycoming development program is effective, the LTS101 could become a viable 750 SHP class engine.

6. Questions concerning this analysis should be addressed to LCDR Sechler, FTS 931-0132.

J.P. Coleman

Encl: (1) LTS101 Support Analysis